Hey Pieter! It's been a long time since we've last spoken (high-school CGU times...), but I recently stumbled upon your substack because of the interest/worry in rapid AI development that we apparently share.
I'd like to refer you to this article; https://europe2031.ai/ (there is a TLDR here: https://europe2031.ai/summary/) which was published this week. It relates to some of the points you list in the post, and I find it to be quite a convincing case for how the future might turn out if we don't take drastic action.
Ha Stan! Leuk om van je te horen. Ja, ik ben ook een groot fan van hun stuk (en heb op een paar plaatsen kunnen meehelpen). Cool om te horen dat jij je ook bezighoudt met AI vraagstukken. Ben je bekend met het Delta Instituut? Onno en Stan van Baarsen doen super goed werk voor Nederland daar.
Wat gaaf dat je daar aan hebt meegewerkt! En ja, die ken ik! Ga toevallig komende vrijdag op gesprek bij het Delta Instituut voor een mogelijk afstudeerproject :)
I agree that the idea of an European homegrown frontier lab competitor is basically copium. But turning a blind eye to to the downsides of just accepting to always be dependent on others is also dangerous. We already saw how this played out for natural gas - the foregone revenue from European consumers didn't end up being much of a deterrent at the end
> It seems unlikely that AI will be the only technology, or Anthropic the only company. Superhuman intelligence may make progress in plasma physics, but that will create a need for companies that build fusion reactors. Those could be German as much as they could be American.
I find this a confusing take. Nobody is saying it will be "the only technology". What does that even mean? Superhuman intelligence presumably can build fusion reactors, or at least manage all the cognitive work involved in it, much better than people. At least, eventually.
this singles out the Baltics for a property that applies to nearly every member state. France has its own AI champion to protect, Germany has its industrial base and energy politics, the Netherlands has ASML, Ireland has its tax relationship with US tech
also, the causal story is backwards. Baltic security dependence on the US isn't a "conflicted interest" in the sense of a preference that makes them unreliable, but an existential response
Extremely valid arguments! I can only hope they will be internalized very quickly by the decision-makers.
I find your point 11 the most powerful. It says: "In a world of highly skewed returns to capabilities, the second mover earns nothing. The revenue that Mistral reported earlier this year is less than one percent of Anthropic’s today."
Another but related argument is that productivity in the American frontier companies is extremely high and would be very hard to match by the European late-starting "me-too" companies: SpaceX has about 22,000 employees, OpenAI has around 4,500–8,000 (planning to nearly double by the end of 2026), and Anthropic has roughly 2,500–5,000. Source: Grok.
That implies an urgent need for a very smart non-"brute-force" play, just as you recommend, Luis.
Hey Pieter! It's been a long time since we've last spoken (high-school CGU times...), but I recently stumbled upon your substack because of the interest/worry in rapid AI development that we apparently share.
I'd like to refer you to this article; https://europe2031.ai/ (there is a TLDR here: https://europe2031.ai/summary/) which was published this week. It relates to some of the points you list in the post, and I find it to be quite a convincing case for how the future might turn out if we don't take drastic action.
Ha Stan! Leuk om van je te horen. Ja, ik ben ook een groot fan van hun stuk (en heb op een paar plaatsen kunnen meehelpen). Cool om te horen dat jij je ook bezighoudt met AI vraagstukken. Ben je bekend met het Delta Instituut? Onno en Stan van Baarsen doen super goed werk voor Nederland daar.
Wat gaaf dat je daar aan hebt meegewerkt! En ja, die ken ik! Ga toevallig komende vrijdag op gesprek bij het Delta Instituut voor een mogelijk afstudeerproject :)
I agree that the idea of an European homegrown frontier lab competitor is basically copium. But turning a blind eye to to the downsides of just accepting to always be dependent on others is also dangerous. We already saw how this played out for natural gas - the foregone revenue from European consumers didn't end up being much of a deterrent at the end
Pieter and Simon, I sincerely apologize for attributing your very informative piece to Luis. No excuses.
> It seems unlikely that AI will be the only technology, or Anthropic the only company. Superhuman intelligence may make progress in plasma physics, but that will create a need for companies that build fusion reactors. Those could be German as much as they could be American.
I find this a confusing take. Nobody is saying it will be "the only technology". What does that even mean? Superhuman intelligence presumably can build fusion reactors, or at least manage all the cognitive work involved in it, much better than people. At least, eventually.
what framing is this regarding Baltics?
this singles out the Baltics for a property that applies to nearly every member state. France has its own AI champion to protect, Germany has its industrial base and energy politics, the Netherlands has ASML, Ireland has its tax relationship with US tech
also, the causal story is backwards. Baltic security dependence on the US isn't a "conflicted interest" in the sense of a preference that makes them unreliable, but an existential response
Extremely valid arguments! I can only hope they will be internalized very quickly by the decision-makers.
I find your point 11 the most powerful. It says: "In a world of highly skewed returns to capabilities, the second mover earns nothing. The revenue that Mistral reported earlier this year is less than one percent of Anthropic’s today."
Another but related argument is that productivity in the American frontier companies is extremely high and would be very hard to match by the European late-starting "me-too" companies: SpaceX has about 22,000 employees, OpenAI has around 4,500–8,000 (planning to nearly double by the end of 2026), and Anthropic has roughly 2,500–5,000. Source: Grok.
That implies an urgent need for a very smart non-"brute-force" play, just as you recommend, Luis.