A concise and highly informative article for a very broad potential audience on a crucial issue for guiding their professional careers and also improving their quality of life. Good advice for setting New Year's resolutions.
It is very dangerous to try to correct Luis, but I think that the economics in this paragraph is slightly off: "The result is that workers with simple tasks will become continuously more productive (and richer), until their work is worth nothing. A junior customer support agent gets more and more effective while the AI provides her the accumulated knowledge of senior customer support agents, as in the recent Brynjolfsson, Li; Ramond (2025) paper, until the AI is good enough that she can be replaced."
The problem is that, for a given number of workers specialized in this task, the supply curve of the service "do a simple task" will shift to the right as AI becomes more productive and the price will begin decreasing immediately. If the demand curve is inelastic enough, the total revenue to be shared between the workers will decrease. They will not become rich during the transition period. And my intuition tells me that this is the most likely case.
Disagreed. It’s all over the map and there is no real advise how to deal with the reality that jobs will be few, overall.
I used to give advises of various kind in this vein. My parents’ generation and my generation are guilty of of this, and I have recovered (I think).
Youth has to make mistakes. That’s how they fucking win!
We did not predict almost none of the major changes that are transforming the world. Author should take his own advise and consider that messiness means “be less prescriptive and let young folks do their thing”.
Brilliant post. Thank you! I fully agree with the statement that there has never been a better time to undertake entrepreneurial projects. And I would add that such window probably won't stay open infinitely, as expanding AI capabilities erode 'founder mystique' and the sizable valuation premium that it still carries today.
Thank you for this insightful post. Let me know when your book is out, I'll certainly buy it and read it. Your posy makes for fascinating reading.
A concise and highly informative article for a very broad potential audience on a crucial issue for guiding their professional careers and also improving their quality of life. Good advice for setting New Year's resolutions.
It is very dangerous to try to correct Luis, but I think that the economics in this paragraph is slightly off: "The result is that workers with simple tasks will become continuously more productive (and richer), until their work is worth nothing. A junior customer support agent gets more and more effective while the AI provides her the accumulated knowledge of senior customer support agents, as in the recent Brynjolfsson, Li; Ramond (2025) paper, until the AI is good enough that she can be replaced."
The problem is that, for a given number of workers specialized in this task, the supply curve of the service "do a simple task" will shift to the right as AI becomes more productive and the price will begin decreasing immediately. If the demand curve is inelastic enough, the total revenue to be shared between the workers will decrease. They will not become rich during the transition period. And my intuition tells me that this is the most likely case.
BTW, it is Jacques Crémer who hides himself behind J smith. No idea why I have a different name on Substack.
Disagreed. It’s all over the map and there is no real advise how to deal with the reality that jobs will be few, overall.
I used to give advises of various kind in this vein. My parents’ generation and my generation are guilty of of this, and I have recovered (I think).
Youth has to make mistakes. That’s how they fucking win!
We did not predict almost none of the major changes that are transforming the world. Author should take his own advise and consider that messiness means “be less prescriptive and let young folks do their thing”.
Hi! You do not need to predict, I believe the goal of the post is to adapt and adjust an disciplinary mentality.
Nonetheless, the current jobs are fewer or more than in the past? In a nutshell, it is human evolution.
Brilliant post. Thank you! I fully agree with the statement that there has never been a better time to undertake entrepreneurial projects. And I would add that such window probably won't stay open infinitely, as expanding AI capabilities erode 'founder mystique' and the sizable valuation premium that it still carries today.
Thank you, Professor Garicano, for the insightful AI article. By the way, Twitter is now known as X.com.
Thanks! I will not use the name X. It has always been Twitter to me, and will continue to be.